دمکراسی انجمنی و بررسی سناریوهای آینده در عراق (مقاله علمی وزارت علوم)
درجه علمی: نشریه علمی (وزارت علوم)
آرشیو
چکیده
پس از سقوط صدام در سال 2003 ساختار اقتداگرایانه حاکم بر عراق تغییر و نوعی دمکراسی موسوم به دمکراسی انجمنی حاکم شد. عبور از دیکتاتوری به دمکراسی گامی رو به جلو بشمار می آید اما انجمن گرایی و سهیم سازی اقوام و اقلیت ها در قدرت پیامدهای دیگری نیز بدنبال داشته که بعضاً منجر به بی ثباتی و منازعات داخلی گردیده است. رویدادهایی نظیر بحران داعش، کرکوک، رفراندوم استقلال کردستان، اغتشاشات داخلی و قدرت گیری جریان صدر، مشکلات تشکیل دولت، مداخلات خارجی، حملات ترکیه به شمال عراق و...، تردیدهایی را در خصوص کارآمدی دمکراسی انجمنی و آینده نظام سیاسی عراق ایجاد کرده است. از طرفی تحولات آینده عراق نقش مهمی در منطقه بویژه کشورهای همسایه نظیر ایران دارد که ارائه تبیین مناسبی در این خصوص از اهداف پژوهش است. پرسش اصلی این است که بر اساس مدل دمکراسی انجمنی و توافق طیف های قدرت چه سناریوهایی برای آینده سیاسی عراق محتمل خواهد بود؟ با چهارچوب نظری دمکراسی انجمنی مدل لیجفارت و بر اساس روش آینده پژوهی و سناریونویسی چهارگانهGBN ، سناریوهای محتمل آینده عراق کنکاش و چهار سناریوی تجزیه عراق، افزایش واگرایی و بحران، دیکتاتوری وحدت ملی و انسجام ملی شناسایی و بررسی شده است.The Impact of Consociational Democracy in Iraqi Kurdistan on Iranian Kurdish Anti-Revolution Parties
I ntroduction Iranian Kurdish anti-Revolution parties have been a source of insecurity in western Iran, undergoing significant changes in their movement over time. Following the 1979 Islamic Revolution, they exploited the vacuum in central power and the nascent revolution, creating instability and insecurity in Iran’s territories against the central government and people residing in Kurdish regions. Later, as the central government established itself and brought peace and order to the country, these parties sought refuge in Iraq under Saddam Hussein’s regime, which was then at war with Iran. After Saddam’s fall, they fled to northern Iraq and Iraqi Kurdistan, citing a shared Kurdish identity as the reason. Understanding the roots of their presence in northern Iraq and their impact on Iraqi Kurdistan requires examination of the current power structure in Iraq and sociological analysis of its ethnic and religious dynamics, especially during the democratization process in the post-Saddam era. The overthrow of Saddam Hussein had a profound impact on Iraq’s political structure, resulting in consociational democracy as the replacement. Consociational democracy, as an alternative for majoritarian democracy, relies on the cooperation and agreement of the power elite and parties involved in heterogeneous societies. Given Iraq’s unique cultural, social, and historical factors, it was not feasible for majoritarian democracy to ensure public participation and protect minority rights. Even consociational democracy has its own consequences and effects. In Iraq, consociational democracy led to changes in the power dynamics and positions of the Iraqi Kurds. These changes had implications beyond Iraq, affecting the Kurds of other countries—including Iranian Kurdish anti-Revolution parties—given their shared identity and common historical and cultural background. The main question of the research is, what is the impact of consociational democracy and the institutionalization of power in Iraqi Kurdistan on Iranian Kurdish anti-Revolution parties? Literature Review Using analytical and descriptive methods, Pourahmadi et al. (2016) examined the obstacles facing the democratization process in Iraq. The results revealed multiple factors including ongoing insecurity and political instability, low levels of economic and social development indicators, weak civil political culture, and other factors that exacerbate these crises. Nasri and Rezaei (2018) adopted an analytical–descriptive approach to examine the limitations and possibilities of the Iraqi Kurdistan region in achieving independence. The results concluded that currently, due to structural constraints, geopolitical nature, and resistance from neighboring countries, complete independence for the Iraqi Kurdistan region is not feasible. Relying on the content analysis method, Mohammadi (2008) studied ethnic divisions and their role in ethnic divergence within the country. The results indicated that in regions with higher social divides, there is greater ethnic divergence, while areas with intersecting divides experience lesser divergence. Materials and Methods The present research used a qualitative method and a descriptive–analytical model to investigate the impact of consociational democracy and institutionalization of power in Iraqi Kurdistan on Iranian Kurdish anti-Revolution parties. The research employed Lijphart’s perspective on consociational democracy as a theoretical framework and applied it to the Iraqi context. The main objective of the study was to offer a thorough analysis of how consociationalism and power institutionalization in Iraq have impacted Iranian Kurdish anti-Revolution parties. Lijphart identified four key criteria for consociational democracy: grand coalitions, proportionality, mutual veto rights, and segmental autonomy or federalism. These criteria were incorporated into the government structure of Iraq after 2005. This study analyzed the impact of this democratic process on Iraqi society, including the Kurdish population, and assessed the effects of changes in Iraqi Kurdish society on Iranian Kurdish movements, particularly anti-Revolution movements. To ensure the study’s reliability, the researchers relied on 20 experts, including university professors and specialists in the issues related to Iraq, Iraqi Kurdistan, and the Kurdish anti-Revolution front. Additionally, the results of in-depth questionnaires were used to formulate and compare the findings. Conclusion In conclusion, the consociational democracy and institutionalization of power in Iraqi Kurdistan have led to a shift in the autonomy strategy and the adoption of federalism among Iranian Kurdish anti-Revolution parties. As a result, their independence and centrifugal tendencies have increased. The discourse of autonomy among these parties has evolved into a discourse of federalism, influenced by Iraqi Kurdish politics. This shift does not diminish the significance or meaning of the process, but rather opens up a more nuanced discussion of separatism, including the right to self-determination and a Kurdish independence referendum within a federal framework. Federalism is a more appealing and populist concept for the anti-Revolution parties. These armed groups have continued to provide military and urban warfare training to the Peshmerga forces in the Kurdistan region and occasionally engage in guerrilla attacks on Iran’s borders. Since the fall of Saddam’s regime, Iraqi Kurdistan has become a base of support for Kurdish anti-Revolution forces, enabling them to create pursue instability in western Iran and pursue their separatist agenda through both soft and hard tactics. Due to the strong sense of Kurdish identity, the Kurdish society and the Kurdish anti-Revolution are inevitably influenced by Iraqi Kurdistan. This issue should be addressed in order to control the peace and security of the borders. In this line, it is suggested that the costs of hosting the Kurdish anti-Revolution in the Iraqi Kurdistan region be increased for both the regional government and the central government of Iraq. This can be achieved by relying on soft power, diplomatic efforts, and negations with the Kurdish and Iraqi authorities, or if necessary, by resorting to military power.
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